Geomagnetic storm forecasting from solar coronal holes

ABSTRACT Coronal holes (CHs) are the source of high-speed streams (HSSs) in solar wind, whose interaction with slow wind creates corotating regions (CIRs) heliosphere. Whenever CIRs hit Earth, they can cause geomagnetic storms. We develop a method to predict strength CIR/HSS-driven storms directly from observations using CH areas and associated magnetic field polarity. First, we build data set comprising properties CHs on Sun, HSSs, CIRs, orientation interplanetary (IMF) at L1, by indices Dst Kp. Then, Kp Gaussian process model, which accounts for annual variation Earth’s axis. demonstrate that polarity IMF L1 is preserved around 83 per cent cases when compared their sources. Testing our model over period 2010–2020, obtained correlation coefficient between predicted observed index R = 0.63/0.73, 0.65/0.67, HSSs having towards/away Sun. These findings possibility predicting extending forecasting lead time up several days, relevant enhancing space weather predictions.